Exploring the Energy Security and Climate Policy Nexus with the POLES Energy Model in the SECURE Project.

The three pillars of EU energy policies, competitiveness through a unified market, sustainability and environmental protection and finally energy security are sometimes presented as conflicting and sometimes as complementary. In this paper, these dimensions of EU policies are explored through a set of scenarios simulated with the POLES model. In order to analyse the impacts of the trade-offs among these three goals on the EU 27 energy sector, five scenarios have been developed.POLES MODEL ; CLIMATE CHANGE ; SCENARIO ; ENERGY POLICY

Economic approach to climate policies and stakes of international negotiations

Cet article traite des différentes modalités qui existent pour gérer un problème d'action collective, comme celui du changement climatique, susceptible d'affecter les conditions de vie et les activités économiques de toutes les régions du monde.changement climatique;négociations internationales;politique environnementale

Assessment of the impacts under future climate change on the energy systems with the POLES model

This paper presents the way we try to explore the most important impacts of climate change on the energy systems with the POLES model. We present the main features and adaptations of the POLES model with details on the treatment of the electricity demand in the residential and service sector, of the hydro and thermal electricity generation and energy demand for water supply while using climate drivers coming from other models. Comparisons of the results of the Reference projection with and without the taking into account of the effects of climate change on energy systems for the World and for Europe (EU27) up to 2100 are displayed in the paper.POLES MODEL ; CLIMATE CHANGE ; SCENARIO ; ENERGY SYSTEM ; ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

Energy and climate policies to 2020 : the impacts of the european " 20/20/20 " approach

Purpose :The study aims to quantify the possible interactions between the three European objectives in the horizon of 2020 : (i) the reduction of 20% of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) (2) the saving of 20% of the European energy consumption and (3) a share of 20% of renewable energies in the overall energy consumption. Particular focus is, however, placed on the influence of the CO2 emission reduction targets and on their consequences on the carbon price in 2020. Design/methodology/approach :In order to explore the interactions among the three European objectives and their induced effects, a number of scenarios are tested within a combination of two modeling tools : the POLES world energy model and ASPEN, an auxiliary model dedicated to the analysis of quota trading systems. With reasonable assumptions for the burden sharing among the Member States, the energy efficiency objectives and the renewable energy targets are achieved using national quota systems in each European country (white and green certificate systems and their implicit prices), while the CO2 emission reduction is carried out within the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in line with the objective of 20% emission reduction.Findings :The paper shows, in particular, that the two quota policies (WC and GC) decrease significantly the European marginal emission reduction cost and consequently, the compliance costs for ETS participants. The high renewable target compliance cost could be reduced significantly if carbon price signal and energy saving policies are in place. The paper also shows that the sole carbon price signal has a limited influence for stimulating renewable energies and energy savings and thus concludes on the need for specific policies targeting these two areas.CO2 emissions ;carbon price ; white certificate price ; green certificate price ; European Union

The european energy system in the context of long term climate policies

The future of the European energy system will strongly depend on a future world energy context that will be dominated by two key challenges. The first challenge corresponds to the necessity of meeting the energy needs of a growing population in Asia, South America and Africa, while some key energy resources – oil and natural gas – enter in a process of increasing scarcity. The second challenge results from the need to rapidly adjust the structure of the world energy system in order to meet the tightening constraints induced by the will to limit anthropogenic climate change. Both issues are clearly strategic for Europe as on the one hand the Union will have to master a growing import dependency from the international markets and neighbouring regions, and as on the other hand it intends to take the lead on the international scene for climate change mitigation policies.Analyses of world long term energy scenario show that the growing scarcity on hydrocarbon supply will not solve the climate change problem as it will rather result in increased coal consumption. Conversely seriously addressing the climate change challenge will imply lower fossil fuel consumption, allow an extension of oil and gas reserves and lead to a real double dividend in terms of sustainability: by climate change mitigation and by reduced tensions and risks of crises on the oil and gas markets. Similarly, ambitious GHG abatement scenarios for Europe will allow limiting the Union's import dependency, which is of course one key element of overall security. Thus, addressing the fossil fuel emissions abatement issue clearly appears as a top priority on the agenda. In this paper we focus on what GHG emissions mitigation policies mean for the European energy system within a global frameworkPROSPECTIVE ; LONG TERM ; CLIMATE POLICY ; EUROPE ; ENERGY SYSTEM

The fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system

The study aims to examine the efficiency aspects of the international carbon market, with a focus on economic impacts on the European energy system, by analyzing the sectoral Marginal Abatements Cost Curves (MACC) and the trading under different global carbon market configurations in 2010 and in 2020. To produce a consistent and realistic assessment we employ sources such as: second NAPs under ETS, GHG National Inventories, EIA data and POLES world energy model to constitute the sectoral base year and 2010, 2020 emission levels in different countries and regions. We then use the market analysis tool ASPEN, which enables to derive supply and demand from sectoral MACCs produced with POLES model, and to evaluate the economic impacts on the carbon market participants. The paper shows in particular that in compliance with 2020 emission reduction targets, the benefits of an extended carbon market gain importance since more than 50% of the reduction target is achieved by ETS sectors and especially electricity sector. Furthermore, the new flexibility margins provided by a longer time-period for the adjustment of investments in new generation capacities compensates for the increasing pressure towards stronger emission reductionsemission trading ; international carbon market ; CO2 price

Les politiques énergétiques entre sécurité et défi climatique

Le modèle énergétique sur lequel se sont développées les sociétés industrielles au cours des deux derniers siècles semble parvenu à ses limites. Il n'est en effet ni généralisable à l'ensemble des habitants de la planète ni soutenable dans le temps, compte-tenu des contraintes de ressources et des risques encourus du fait de l'injection dans l'atmosphère de quantités croissantes de CO2. Le XXIe siècle marquera donc une rupture et les sociétés modernes sont confrontées à un défi majeur qui, de tous les problèmes environnementaux, va nécessiter les transformations les plus profondes en matière de technologies, de systèmes de production et de modes de consommation.POLITIQUE ENERGETIQUE ; POLITIQUE CLIMATIQUE ; SECURITE

Lutte contre le changement climatique : les instruments économiques

Pour lutter contre le changement climatique, les pouvoirs publics devront programmer une hausse progressive du prix des énergies fossiles, émettrices de gaz à effet de serre.CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; POLITIQUE ENVIRONNEMENTALE

La Contribution Climat Energie : enfin un prix pour le carbone !

La taxe carbone a été discutée en France depuis de nombreuses années. Un long processus a combiné des rapports publics, des études à partir de modèles économiques et des conférences réunissant experts et parties-prenantes. Il a permis de dégager progressivement un consensus, sur les principes et sur les valeurs à retenir. Les derniers moments précédant la décision ont vu émerger de vives controverses. Les décisions prises finalement peuvent s'inscrire dans le consensus progressivement construit, à condition cependant que la croissance du prix du carbone dans les années à venir permette de respecter les trajectoires d'émission conformes aux engagements internationaux de la France.changement climatique ; taxe carbone ; France

After The Hague, Bonn and Marrakech : the future international market for emissions permits and the issue of hot air

The main objective of this paper is to assess the Bonn-Marrakech agreement, in terms of abatement cost and emission trading as compared with the initial agreement reached in Kyoto (the Kyoto Protocol).CLIMATE CHANGE ; EMISSIONS TRADING ; INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT